British Columbia's repeated cycle of drought emergencies is the product of a provincial water management system that still treats drought as a short-term seasonal crisis rather than a persistent, year-round condition, according to a new report from researchers at the University of Victoria's POLIS Water Sustainability Project and collaborators.
The report examines the province's drought past, present, and future, and concludes that the current framework is built on an outdated assumption of water abundance. That assumption, the authors argue, no longer matches the reality of increasingly severe and prolonged water scarcity across the region.
The consequences have been widespread. In 2023, severe drought affected roughly 85 per cent of British Columbia. The Syilx Okanagan Nation declared a watershed emergency. Agricultural producers in Vernon were ordered to cut water use by 70 per cent. Regulatory orders were issued to protect salmon, and explosive wildfires were driven by parched conditions. Recent droughts have also caused massive fish die-offs, reduced farm production by as much as 50 per cent, killed livestock, and left communities such as Dawson Creek, McBride, and the Sunshine Coast under months-long states of emergency. Conflicts over scarce water are mounting.
Climate change and shifting hydrology are key drivers, but the report stresses that drought and water scarcity are also shaped by human decisions about land and water. Whether water is over-allocated, wetlands are drained, or forests are clear-cut affects how much buffer communities have to absorb dry periods. Community planning choices, the authors note, directly influence the ability to adapt.
While the 2023 drought was unprecedented, climate projections suggest that extreme events of that magnitude could occur once every three years or more often in the coming decades. Yet the provincial system lacks essential foundations for managing scarcity, including systematic water-use measuring and monitoring. Progress has stalled on implementing proactive tools under the Water Sustainability Act.
Some communities are already leading with flow monitoring, local drought strategies, wetland restoration, and voluntary water reductions. But they face limited resources and no robust provincial framework for long-term adaptation.
The report outlines three critical steps for the provincial government. First, fully implement the Water Sustainability Act, including regional water sustainability plans to prepare governments and communities. Second, shift water mindsets by supporting agriculture, small drinking water systems, tourism, and industry to develop forward-looking strategies, while rapidly scaling up conservation through higher industrial water rates and expanded water metering. Third, accelerate watershed planning and local drought governance, starting in high-risk watersheds, by resourcing watershed plans and regional watershed boards.
The authors frame the choice plainly: the question is not whether British Columbia will face more droughts, but whether it will continue chasing crisis after crisis or begin building resilience before the next dry spell arrives.
