Flávio Bolsonaro's lead in the first round of Brazil's presidential election has alarmed climate campaigners, who warn that a return to the environmental policies of his father's administration could accelerate destruction of the Amazon rainforest and push the globally important ecosystem closer to a point of no return.
The result has prompted an inquest into why President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's success in curbing Amazon deforestation has not translated into electoral success. Despite falling deforestation rates under Lula, voters in Latin America's largest and most biodiverse nation appear far less concerned about the rainforest's fate than observers abroad.
Campaigners fear that a Flávio Bolsonaro presidency would bring more fire, more ash, more crime and more death to the Amazon, according to concerns raised in the wake of the vote. The prospect, they say, is a globally important ecosystem driven ever more rapidly towards a point of no return over at least the next four years.
The first-round result has exposed a gap between international concern for the Amazon and domestic political priorities in Brazil. While the outside world has treated the rainforest's survival as a global emergency, Brazilian voters have focused on other issues, leaving environmental policy on the sidelines of the campaign.
Lula's record on deforestation had been widely cited as a success by climate campaigners. His administration reduced forest loss in the Amazon, a shift that was expected to bolster his political standing. Instead, the election outcome suggests that curbing deforestation did not deliver the electoral reward his supporters had anticipated.
The Amazon is the world's largest tropical rainforest and a critical buffer against climate change, absorbing vast amounts of carbon dioxide and supporting millions of species. Scientists have warned that continued destruction could push it past a tipping point, after which large parts of the forest would dry out and die, with consequences for global weather patterns and biodiversity.
Flávio Bolsonaro's advance in the first round has therefore become a focal point for climate campaigners, who see the election as a referendum on the future of the rainforest. Their concern is not limited to Brazil's borders: the Amazon's health affects rainfall, carbon storage and climate stability far beyond South America.
The inquest into Lula's failure to convert environmental progress into votes is likely to shape how climate advocates approach future elections. It raises questions about whether voters in Brazil prioritize the Amazon when choosing a president, or whether other economic and social concerns outweigh environmental ones at the ballot box.
For now, the first-round result leaves the rainforest's fate hanging on the next stage of the presidential contest. If Flávio Bolsonaro maintains his lead, campaigners expect a sharp reversal of recent environmental gains and a renewed push for development in the Amazon, with consequences that would be felt worldwide.
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