Scientists say 2026 could be the hottest year on record, a forecast released as delegates gathered for the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey. The warning puts added pressure on negotiators who are meeting to decide how countries will turn their pledges into real cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
Chris Bowen, Australia's climate minister, is presiding over the negotiations. He acknowledged that the world is set to overshoot the 1.5C limit agreed under the Paris accord, the threshold that governments have long treated as a key line for limiting the most severe impacts of warming. Bowen argued, however, that the target remains within reach if countries take urgent and coordinated action.
The central task of the summit is practical rather than rhetorical: getting governments to put into effect the emissions targets they have already set. Talks are expected to run for about two weeks, giving delegates a substantial window to hammer out commitments on cutting the fossil fuel emissions that drive long-term warming.
Much remains uncertain. It is not yet clear whether the record-heat forecast will hold, since year-to-year temperatures can shift with weather patterns and other natural factors. Equally open is whether the Antalya talks will produce emissions reductions large enough to match the scale of the problem. The coming two weeks will show whether the forecast of a record year becomes a catalyst for faster action or another warning that goes largely unanswered.
Credit. Based on reporting by Esme Stallard and Justin Rowlatt for BBC Science and Environment. Is this your work? Write to us.
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