A commission of 35 leaders from various industries has identified 17 interconnected catastrophic threats that pose significant risks to global health and wellbeing through the rest of the 21st century, including two that could lead to human extinction. The findings, published in the journal The Lancet, warn that without targeted action, these threats could collectively account for tens of billions of years of lost healthy life.
Using data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Global Burden of Disease study, the commission forecast the total years of good health that could be lost due to sickness, disability or premature mortality. The threats include health conditions and behaviors such as obesity, high blood pressure, smoking and mental health, as well as economic conditions, environmental change, technology and conflict.
Two threats pose a risk of extinction, according to the commission: nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence. The potential for healthy years of life lost due to malicious AI is estimated at about 10.4 billion years worldwide by 2100, roughly the same as some other risks including naturally occurring pandemics and obesity. However, because no malicious AI event of truly global magnitude has yet occurred, the estimates for AI risk remain theoretical.
«The striking finding is not only the scale of these threats, but that humanity still has the agency to act,» said Dr. Christopher Murray, co-chair of the commission and director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. «Across all 17 catastrophic threats, the decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation. But delaying action will only serve to shift and increase the costs into the future.»
The commission noted that the emergence of powerful AI systems is an example of how quickly assumptions about stability can be overturned, along with evidence from other recent global shocks including the Covid-19 pandemic, the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Africa, and accelerating climate impacts. Various forecasters who worked with the commission showed wide divergence in estimating the risk of AI-related catastrophe.
In contrast to the theoretical AI estimates, the risks posed by obesity are based on more empirical data. Data shows that overweight and obesity are increasing in every country, and estimates suggest the global rate could reach 60% of adults and a third of children by 2050. Obesity is related to dozens of other poor health outcomes, particularly associated with increased caloric intake and decreased physical activity, and the commission forecasts a major global impact from this cluster of behavioral risks.
The goal of the new commission is not to rank threats but to catalyse international, regional and national actions to protect and strengthen the future of health and humanity, according to a related editorial published in The Lancet. «Recent global events show us just how quickly stability can give way to crisis, and how costly it is to respond only after disaster strikes,» said Dr. Natalia Kanem, former executive director of the United Nations Population Fund and co-chair of the commission. «Governments and communities must act decisively starting today, to protect health and build a fairer, more peaceful and more secure future for the coming generations.»
Trust is key to meaningful intervention, according to the report. The commissioners wrote that trust is a stabilising force, enabling societies to anticipate, mitigate and adapt, while distrust can increase potential harm. Along with trust, seven other factors will shape how societies respond to threats in the future, including collaborative global leadership, resilient food systems and efforts to foster more equitable societies.
«Public health is full of examples in which potential threats were known, and protection plans were in place, yet effective action failed,» the report says. «Achieving meaningful progress will require not only technical solutions but also robust societal and institutional foundations that foster collaboration and accountability.»
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